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Planning for a Net-Zero Future: Guidance on Developing a Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS)

by Susan Johnson

Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS) are crucial frameworks that guide countries in aligning their developmental goals with the Paris Agreement’s objective to limit global warming to well below 2°C. These strategies provide a roadmap for transitioning national economies towards sustainable, low-carbon models by mid-century, integrating climate action with economic and social planning. By doing so, LT-LEDS enhance investor confidence, promote technological innovation, and ensure that both current and future generations benefit from sustainable development, increased climate resilience, and reduced emissions.

Recognizing the challenges in developing LT-LEDS—stemming from their voluntary nature, limited guidance, and a lack of examples from developing countries—this guide serves as an essential resource. It provides practical and concise, step-by-step guidance on designing LT-LEDS, which are crucial for mitigating and adapting to climate change while aligning with development objectives. The guide encapsulates key lessons from early experiences and showcases prominent examples from developing countries. It is designed to assist both newcomers initiating LT-LEDS and those with established strategies, acknowledging the diversity in government capacity, economic contexts, and political dynamics.

LT-LEDS in Perspective

Motivations and Incentives for Developing LT-LEDS: Developing LT-LEDS is driven by the imperative to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. According to the latest scientific insights, global emissions need to peak very soon, roughly halve by 2030, and reach net zero by 2050 (IPCC, 2018; IPCC, 2022). Achieving net zero means balancing emitted and removed human-caused greenhouse gases (GHGs). LT-LEDS provide a vision for transitions, offering guidance on achieving a net-zero economy and a just society with equitable management of impacts and opportunities (CNC, 2022; WRI, 2023).

The Role of LT-LEDS in the Paris Agreement: The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for all Parties to develop and submit LT-LEDS, as reiterated in the 2021 Glasgow Climate Pact. These strategies set out long-term goals for climate and development, directing short-term decision-making needed to achieve net-zero emissions and climate-resilient economies (UNFCCC, 2023). As of February 2024, 71 Parties have submitted LT-LEDS to the UNFCCC, varying in comprehensiveness and detail. LT-LEDS are not mandatory, and the UNFCCC offers no specific guidance on their structure, allowing countries the flexibility to develop their strategy according to their national context.

Preparing for LT-LEDS Development

Leadership, Mandate, and Governance: Securing an official mandate, often codified in law or through a presidential decree, is the first step in developing an LT-LEDS. Effective governance involves strong, high-level leadership and an institutional ‘home’ for a climate and development taskforce with cross-cutting coordination authority (El Haite in UNDP and WRI, 2018a). This taskforce manages the process, performs tasks needed to prepare, develop, and guide LT-LEDS implementation, ensuring continuity beyond political cycles (Abeysinghe in UNDP and WRI, 2018a; WRI, 2019a).

Mapping the Existing Policy Landscape: Early in the process, it is crucial to map the existing policy landscape, establishing an overview of national and sectoral climate and development strategies, plans, and governance structures (OECD, 2020). This step includes gathering data on emissions, climate risks, and development trends, and evaluating how climate is featured in broader development plans.

Process Organization and Stakeholder Engagement: Stakeholder engagement is central to LT-LEDS development. It raises awareness, enhances legitimacy, advances trust, creates a social mandate, aligns policies with values, and strengthens democracy (Demski, 2021). Effective engagement involves strategic selection of stakeholders, clear roles, managing expectations, and facilitating contestation (GGBP, 2014; WRI, 2019).

Analytical Support: Analytical support, involving both quantitative and qualitative analyses, is essential for robust LT-LEDS development. Modelling future technology and emissions scenarios, assessing impacts, costs, and benefits, and clear communication of assumptions and limitations strengthen the strategy’s credibility (UNEPDTU, 2021). Countries can benefit from international exchange, peer learning, and technical and financial support from initiatives like the UNDP Climate Promise, the NDC Partnership, and the 2050 Platform.

Contents of an LT-LEDS

Context and Scope: A convincing LT-LEDS begins with an introduction outlining its purpose, scope, international context, national circumstances, and methodology. This section should also discuss how the LT-LEDS guides increasingly ambitious NDC updates (IPCC, 2022).

Ambition and Vision: The ambition and vision sections convey the most important messages of the LT-LEDS, presenting headline ambitions for climate and development goals, pillars, milestones, and a clear vision of the changes needed. This section should also include guiding principles and key enablers for achieving the strategy’s goals.

Pathways and Scenarios: LT-LEDS ambition and vision should be built around quantitative pathways analyses of future technology and emissions scenarios, including impact assessments of policies and measures. Pathways should be embedded in scenarios with narratives showing institutional, economic, technological, and social changes needed to support the overall ambition (2050 Pathways Platform, 2017).

Sector Transformations and Priorities: Sectoral information is essential in LT-LEDS, including sector net-zero roadmaps, mitigation and adaptation potentials, goals and objectives, transformation pathways, and sector-specific policies. Setting national priorities involves identifying barriers to implementation, considering policy synergies and trade-offs, and structuring discussions around short-term shifts of investments and deep transformative actions (OECD, 2010).

Finance and Investments: Effective LT-LEDS include a comprehensive assessment of investment needs, priorities, barriers, enablers, and policies to attract investments. This section should present cost estimates, investment requirements, and socio-economic impacts of the transition to a low-emission economy.

Monitoring and Revision: LT-LEDS should include mechanisms for monitoring progress, reporting, and revising strategies. Establishing indicators, frameworks for reporting and accountability, and timelines for regular updates ensures that the strategy remains relevant and effective over time.

Adaptation and Resilience: Given the importance of adaptation and resilience, especially for vulnerable countries, LT-LEDS should integrate these aspects throughout the strategy. This includes assessing climate risks, setting adaptation goals, and identifying co-benefits of mitigation and adaptation actions.

Equity and Fairness: Equity and fairness are central to LT-LEDS, ensuring that the transition to a net-zero economy is just and inclusive. This section should address the impacts of the transition on different groups, mechanisms for ensuring fairness, and policies to support vulnerable populations.

Implementation of LT-LEDS

Institutional and Legal Arrangements: Successful implementation of LT-LEDS requires strong institutional and legal arrangements, including clear governance structures, coordination mechanisms, and legal frameworks supporting the strategy.

Policy Coordination and Priorities: Coordinating policies across sectors and levels of government is crucial for effective implementation. This includes aligning national and subnational policies, integrating climate action into development planning, and ensuring consistency across different policy areas.

Local Governments and Non-State Actors: Engaging local governments and non-state actors is essential for broad-based support and successful implementation of LT-LEDS. This includes involving local authorities, businesses, civil society, and other stakeholders in the planning and implementation process.

Lessons Learned and Good Practices: Drawing from early experiences and prominent examples, this section highlights lessons learned and good practices in developing and implementing LT-LEDS. These insights can guide countries in overcoming challenges and enhancing the effectiveness of their strategies.

Developing and implementing LT-LEDS is a complex but essential process for achieving sustainable, low-carbon development. By following the guidance provided in this document, countries can align their developmental goals with climate action, enhance resilience, and promote long-term economic and social benefits. Collaborative efforts, stakeholder engagement, and continuous improvement are key to the success of LT-LEDS.

This report provides a comprehensive guide to developing LT-LEDS, highlighting the importance of these strategies for achieving net-zero emissions and sustainable development. By integrating climate action with economic and social planning, LT-LEDS help countries navigate the complex challenges of climate change and ensure a sustainable future for all. Download the full report here.

References
1. IPCC. (2018). Global Warming of 1.5°C. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
2. IPCC. (2022). Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
3. UNFCCC. (2023). Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Retrieved from [UNFCCC LT-LEDS Portal](https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/long-term-strategies)
4. 2050 Pathways Platform. (2017). Developing Long-Term Strategies: A 2050 Pathway Platform Resource.
5. CNC. (2022). Climate and Development Report.
6. WRI. (2023). Long-Term Strategies for Climate and Development. World Resources Institute.
7. OECD. (2010). Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co-operation. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.
8. UNEPDTU. (2021). Emission Pathways to 1.5°C. United Nations Environment Programme and Danish Technical University.